2010 January Barometer Official Results: Second Warning Shot

The market has fired its second warning shot in a week at the 11-month old bull. Even with our Market Probability numbers positive for the last trading day of January the odds were slim that the market could rally enough today to put the January Barometer positive for 2010. After a feeble attempt early in the day stocks faded in the afternoon, pushing the S&P down 3.7% for the month, registering a negative January Barometer for 2010.

With a down January it is difficult to be bullish as 50-day moving-average support levels that have held since July 2009 have been broken. Absent a sharp reversal, 200-day averages are the next line in the sand, but they are well below current levels. All eyes are on Washington now and if they don’t get something done soon on the jobs front, the odds increase of the lower end of our 2010 Forecast materializing before the upper end.

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