We are thoroughly enjoying David Rohde's gritty and insightful account of the situation and conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan in his five-part series "Held by the Taliban" this week in The New York Times. Seems like Pulitzer material to us and we can't wait to discover the details of his and his colleagues escape.
Held by the Taliban
International / Asia Pacific
7 Months, 10 Days in Captivity
By DAVID ROHDE
Published: October 18, 2009
A Times reporter, David Rohde, and two Afghan colleagues were kidnapped by the Taliban in 2008 and held for seven months in Pakistan. This is the first installment in a five-part series offering his account.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/world/asia/18hostage.html
But, more importantly, Rohde's story underscores the impact war has on the markets. In our ongoing study of "War & the Markets" we illustrate how the stock market has stayed in a trading range while the U.S. remains entrenched in a foreign military conflict or operaration that involves tens of thousands of U.S. troops.
After the conflict is resolved and the troops come home the tab comes due, generating heightened inflation. This wartime inflation propelled the Dow Jones Industrials up 500% or more following the ends of the major conflicts of the 20th Century. We expect this pattern to carryover into the 21st Century.
The market will be hard pressed to breakout of its current range since 1998 of about 6500-14000 with a line in the sand at about 10000 much like Dow 1000 held the line from 1966-1982 with a Dow range of about 600-1100. Below is an update of our chart, “500+% Moves Follow Wartime Inflation.”
Held by the Taliban
International / Asia Pacific
7 Months, 10 Days in Captivity
By DAVID ROHDE
Published: October 18, 2009
A Times reporter, David Rohde, and two Afghan colleagues were kidnapped by the Taliban in 2008 and held for seven months in Pakistan. This is the first installment in a five-part series offering his account.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/world/asia/18hostage.html
But, more importantly, Rohde's story underscores the impact war has on the markets. In our ongoing study of "War & the Markets" we illustrate how the stock market has stayed in a trading range while the U.S. remains entrenched in a foreign military conflict or operaration that involves tens of thousands of U.S. troops.
After the conflict is resolved and the troops come home the tab comes due, generating heightened inflation. This wartime inflation propelled the Dow Jones Industrials up 500% or more following the ends of the major conflicts of the 20th Century. We expect this pattern to carryover into the 21st Century.
The market will be hard pressed to breakout of its current range since 1998 of about 6500-14000 with a line in the sand at about 10000 much like Dow 1000 held the line from 1966-1982 with a Dow range of about 600-1100. Below is an update of our chart, “500+% Moves Follow Wartime Inflation.”
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